✅ Global risks report

A week in management, media and public relations

The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024, published last week, sets out a comprehensive analysis of global risks over one, two and 10-year horizons. It is intended to support decision-makers in balancing short- and long-term risks.

The report reveals a generally negative short-term outlook, worsening over the long term. Extreme weather, AI-generated misinformation and societal polarisation are identified as top risks.

The report anticipates increased socio-economic polarisation in the near term, with concerns about economic downturns, conflict and misinformation.

Key insights from the report are:

• Extreme weather: After the hottest summer in recorded history in the Northern Hemisphere in 2023, extreme weather is the top risk for 2024. El Niño is expected to strengthen and persist until May 2024, which could continue to set new heat records and lead to extreme heatwaves, drought, wildfires and flooding.

• False information: The rise of misinformation and disinformation, driven by AI, threatens electoral processes and societal cohesion. Governments face challenges in regulating such content while preserving free speech and human rights.

• Rise in conflict: The report warns of potential escalations in key global hotspots like Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. These conflicts, if intensified, could have severe implications for global security, economy and geopolitical order.

• Economic uncertainty: The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with contrasting narratives of resilience versus risk of downturns. Supply-side pressures and demand uncertainties could sustain high inflation and interest rates. The economic futures of major economies such as China and the US are complex and uncertain, impacting global economic trajectories.

The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024 suggests that ongoing upheaval is eroding human development and resilience. It highlights the importance of preparing for emerging risks in a world being pushed beyond its limits.

It's not all doom and gloom. The report highlights the understanding of risk, global cooperation, advancements in technology, the engagement of diverse stakeholders and a focus on long-term sustainability to mitigate risks and strengthen global resilience.

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Artificial intelligence

🤾 CHATGPT TEAM: OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Team, a new self-serve plan that provides teams access to GPT-4 and DALL-E 3 in a secure, collaborative workspace for $25 per user per month. It enables teams to create custom AI assistants for their specific needs and integrate AI into workflows to improve efficiency and quality. Source: OpenAI.

👐 AI AD DISCLOSURE: Advertisers are required to disclose when their ad contains a photorealistic image or video or realistic-sounding audio that was digitally created or altered by AI. It is aimed at tackling the synthetic manipulation of political candidates. Research by Fenimore Harper identified more than 100 deepfake ads of Rishi Sunak. Source: Fenimore Harper and Meta.

🤲 UBIQUITOUS AI: Analyst Benedict Evans believes generative AI represents a major platform shift, but we are still in the early days of figuring out how to turn AI demos into useful products. He predicts that AI will become ubiquitous background technology like databases and search, rather than artificial general intelligence. Source: Benedict Evans.

Media

📰 LOCAL NEWS: 92% of UK adults say they use some form of local media. The most popular types are local weather (70%) and local news/current affairs (65%). The most used platforms are online sources such as social media, websites and apps (89%). Ofcom has published the terms of reference for a new study. Source: Ofcom.

↪️ SUBSTACK BACKTRACKS: Substack will remove Nazi content, saying it violates rules against inciting violence but claims it is not changing its hand-off moderation approach. It follows a controversy over allowing openly pro-Nazi publications on its platform. Tensions remain within Substack's user base over whether more aggressive moderation is needed. Source: Platformer.

Technology and platforms

🔍 TIKTOK SEARCH: Claims that TikTok is replacing Google for search queries are overblown. However, Gen Z is increasingly using social networks to find places to dine out. It’s part of a broader shift in discovery away from Google to platforms such as TikTok, Instagram and ChatGPT. Source: Econsultancy.

🤔 SEO RETHINK NEEDED: AI-generated answers in Google’s Search Generative Experience (SGE) do not match any links from the top ten Google organic search results in the majority of cases. Source: Search Engine Land. Google SGE is expected to reduce organic traffic significantly to websites. Source: Search Engine Land.

📏 MISLEADING METRICS: Elon Musk claims X engagement is increasing based on total user seconds spent in the app. However, when broken down per user, the average time spent is declining or the number of users is dropping. Without transparent oversight, the metrics shared by X are difficult to trust as accurate measures of performance. Source: Search Engine Land.

⬇️ TECH DOWNSIZES: Google has laid off 1,000 workers across its hardware, voice assistance, and engineering teams as part of cost-cutting measures. It follows similar workforce reductions at other major tech companies like Meta, Amazon, Spotify, and Microsoft as they adjust their businesses from the pandemic boom. Source: The Guardian.

Good and bad PR

😰 EBAY SETTLES: Online marketplace eBay has agreed to pay a $3 million fine to resolve charges that its executives harassed bloggers who published a newsletter critical of the company by sending them live insects, a fetal pig, and other intimidating items. The employees involved were fired and some were sentenced to prison. Source: BBC.

📺 ARTS AS ACTIVISM: The ITV drama Mr Bates vs the Post Office" has generated unprecedented public and political attention to the Post Office Horizon scandal. It’s an example of the power of the arts to elicit national reckoning on injustice and may inspire more commissions of such programming. Source: The Guardian.

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Thank you to the following members of the House of Marketing & PR community of practice for sharing and debating stories covered in the newsletter over the past week: Rob Bruce, Rod Cartright, Adam Driver, Alan Morrison, Nigel Sarbutts, Andrew Bruce Smith, and Sarah Waddington CBE.